Re: S.DICE - Want a piece of SatoshiDICE? IPO this week before new site launch!
Erik you need to stop repeating this without mentioning your assumption : that the stock price is unchanged. It's improper.
Here's my alternative: when the stock price has halved over 5 years you'll be lucky to have broken even over those 5 years.
Here's my alternative: when the stock price has halved over 5 years you'll be lucky to have broken even over those 5 years.
Well of course it assumes the stock price is unchanged. It could go up or down. Honestly, it's likely to rise based on a number of reasons we could discuss, but I'm trying not to assume growth. I think assuming zero growth is legitimate for figuring out baseline dividend earnings... certainly more legitimate than assuming the stock price will halve in five years when there's no evidence of anything like that. There is only evidence of serious growth, and yet I'm assuming zero growth... that's fair, no? And of course you can make your own assumptions.
Personally I think assuming anything other than decline from your current near-monopoly status is hubris. Further, given the current "low" value of BTC (we can probably agree on that) and the fact you are denominated in BTC not USD (as I've mentioned elsewhere in this thread) means your BTC take will likely trend down.
So I stick with my previous point that anything over 2.5x earnings seems highly speculative, and that is indeed why we won't be meeting to exchange in the market
You're of course welcome to try and get whatever you can for your stake, and I wish you luck, but it would surprise me indeed if you manage to get anything like what you seem to expect, particularly after the initial "IPO".