Then again, how many "traditional" IPOs pay out ALL net revenues in dividends? While I agree that the P/E needs to be discounted from 10 because the risks are understated, it is also fair to say that some credit is to be granted for paying out the revenues.

Is Mr. V cashing out 10% and sticking shareholders with the risk? Yes he is. But shareholders are 1) getting the dividend and 2) getting exposure to upside. This is worth something. It's also not fair to compare SatoshiDICE to other ventures that only cost 2 or 3 times earnings. SatoshiDICE is at the top of the food chain, has already proven itself, and has considerable corporate goodwill.

I believe that a 10 P/E is overpriced. A reasonable value would be 5 to 7. It should be listed on GLBSE so that I don't have to worry about liquidity problems of a fly by night exchange that wants $200 entry fee.

My prediction is that a couple of million shares of the initial offering will sell. The rest will sit on that crappy exchange. After a while someone will put their shares up for sale, get no bids, lower their ask, and we will see the price come down to the range I gave (losing 30% to 50% of share price). Then people might start getting into it. Over time we should see the price go up steadily. It will be extremely volatile especially if there is any news. For example, advertising appearing in magazines. Or the new website being rolled out.

If anything happens, like the domain is seized, or a server is hacked, or Mr. V gets a national security letter, we will see the thing tank. God forbid a dividend payment is missed.

Another possibility is that Mr. V is pricing the IPO high to get the early adopters, and will lower the price for the remaining shares that do not sell. This discriminatory pricing technique can maximize revenue.