I can attempt a try.

If he doesn't pay or somehow becomes unable to pay due any reason, it increases the risk of litigation, he'll either have to fight it and lose money having to sell other coin, or pay out selectively, or not make people the promised returns. We could very well be looking at the first real test of Bitcoins as a currency if he is indeed brought up on fraud charges, which someone inevitably would do. Every day he doesn't pay increases the likelihood of a lawsuit, and if Bitcoinica is any indication, the first person to sue is likely going to be the biggest/only benefactor, so that risk increases exponentially every day.

I mean, it's possible that a court would say, it's fuddy duddy money, but it'll still be legal proceeding and pirate is going to need money to deal with them or risk contempt of court and possible prison time (which just further delays the pay backs).