It occurred to me that there is a simple way to predict the price of bitcoin.
Start with the equation V = U + R*P, where
V is the amount of money (or money equivalent of goods and services) disbursed by new investors (in $/day);
U is the amount of money (or money equivalent of goods and services) collected by holders who are divesting ($/day;
R is the block reward volume, now 3600 (BTC/day); and
P is the current price ($/BTC).
From that we get P = (V - U)/R.
Now you only need to predict V and U.
Start with the equation V = U + R*P, where
V is the amount of money (or money equivalent of goods and services) disbursed by new investors (in $/day);
U is the amount of money (or money equivalent of goods and services) collected by holders who are divesting ($/day;
R is the block reward volume, now 3600 (BTC/day); and
P is the current price ($/BTC).
From that we get P = (V - U)/R.
Now you only need to predict V and U.
You have invested in a pyramid and come up with some formulas??? Come on!! Open your eyes. This ship will sink. I said it when it was above 1000 dollars, and I will say it again at 200 dollars.