You admit that your first and second points aren't very strong. The third doesn't tip the scales either (obviously, only full payouts will). So I'll respond to the fourth and fifth.
- Payback: While all Ponzi operators have historically attempted payback when the operation is collapsing, the situation involving Pirate@40 is distinct in certain ways. The crucial difference here: Pirate@40 has closed the scheme himself. With the option of simply taking all the money and leaving, paying back a few investors is not constructive to his goals.
He admitted that he was forced to close the scheme (aka collapse) because of too many withdrawals.
After much consideration, Ive decided to close down Bitcoin Savings & Trust.
Why?
The decision was based on the general size and overall time required to manage the transactions. As the fund grew there were larger and larger coin movements which put strain on my reserve accounts and ultimately caused delays on withdraws and the inability to fund orders within my system. On the 14th I made a final attempt to relieve pressure off the system by reducing the rates I offered for deposits. In a perfect world this would allow me to hold more coins in reserve outside the system, but instead it only exponentially increased the amount of withdrawals overnight causing mass panic from many of my lenders.
- Financial incentive: At this point, with many PPT bonds in free-fall, Pirate@40 himself has the option of purchasing a large amount and reducing his debt. This gives him a financial incentive to repay his lenders. Additionally, Pirate@40 runs a reportedly successful business in GPUMAX, profits from which would disappear if Pirate@40 chooses to vanish.
The spreads on the PPT bonds are enormous, so there is not much trading going on at the quoted bid prices. So no, that is not really an option for him (because there aren't enough lenders aren't willing to take a big haircut, at least not yet).
GPUMax is only reportedly successful. Looking through the thread, there are many complaints of no bids for mining work. This reflects a lack of demand to pay a price premium for virgin/vanilla coin.