I thought the chances of him paying were very high until that guy brought up Matthew saying the funds were on casascius gold bar(s) but if you look here http://casascius.uberbills.com/ there's only BTC6,000 unopened. He says funds are his but refuses to provide signed address or picture on the bar(s). Refuses escrow. Seems out of character for someone always calling people out over transparency. Lots of hostility between him and his colleagues (Bitcoin Magazine) over this pirate stuff lately as well.

edit: respecting bob here, don't want to argue or multi-post. Here's backing of hostility claim in Matthew's own words, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=101751.msg1124864#msg1124864. Or just look at any exchange between him and Vlad these last couple days.