I think it's more a Madoff than a Ponzi.
Failure to pay back doesn't need to be planned from the beginning to be very real. There is a fine line between risky gambling disguised as safe investment and actual machinated fraud. However profitable his "shady" operations may be, I'm willing to believe he won't be able to pay up. That's what the bet is about. There are many signs pointing to it.
- failed attempt to tank the market during last weekend.
- stupidly passive-aggressive behaviour. Denial.
- he paid a couple small accounts with coins from his mining operation.
- he won't come clean at this point, with neither proof of solvency nor information on this supposed assets (there are plausible explanations for this particular point, though).
I believe he thought he could pull it off. Thus, all the contradictions you mention against the "planned it from the beginning" theories. But numbers don't seem to add up and I'm in the "he won't be able to make it" camp.
I also think he's still trying and is under massive pressure. But worst comes to worst, will he pay up as much as he can and be a fraud + broke? or be just a fraud and run with a large share of the bounty?
My counterthoughts:
- attempts to tank / control / whatever the market are a figment of the imagination of the posters / pirate power lovers. There never is / was such an ability. Yes he plays you like a fiddle.
- The evolution of the past week has IMO been almost purely for entertainment value, unexpectedly aided by MNW's thread, at least from where I'm sitting. Further value that hangers-on might scoop up has lucratively derived from panic sellers. One well-known low-life face in particular, who refuses to reveal an iota of personal identity, and whose behaviour is as shady and lacking in integrity as it comes, seems to have made out like a bandit.
- see prior point, prolongs the entertainment. Feed the ducks.
- let's wait and see.