I am bullish. back in oct 2011 bitcoin was $3. I see this as a real number not a goxed number for example. In the next 12 months it went up 2-3 times depending on which numbers you use.
so bitcoin can easily have good growth of that level when it is not being goxed.

so I take a possible price in oct 2015 and see what the price might be in oct 2016 using the year on year change to get to the Oct 2015 price from $3.
The figures are below
eg if price drops as some predict to a "true" bottom of $100 the year on year change has been 2.39 so I see bitcoin being $239 in oct 2016.
so if i bought now and even if there was a big drop to $100 within a year I would be roughly back where I bought at. Obviously if the price is about where it is now (250) the price might be one year on nearly 800. Even if my extrapolation overstates things by say 50% a price in Oct 2016 might still be nearly $400 a year later -  great gains
It works for me.


100   239

200   574

250   796   
   
300   945