It's too easy and seemingly obvious that everyone has their hearts set on the halving before anything major changes but we all know this market does its own thing regardless. Newer options to bring in higher net worth types can instill new demand which is what drives the price so I'd bet we get a decent rally sometime in the fall and perhaps another mega rally leading up to the halving.
It's a hard mathematical thing with known consequences. After the halving it will cost twice as much in electricity to produce a bitcoin. Prices will go up or the network will weaken, there are no other options. And with all the money flowing in, it seems unlikely it will be allowed to collapse altogether.
true it will in theory cost twice as much but may not in practice. A good example is here in new zealand where a smelter takes quite a bit of our total power at a very low price. When that was to be raised by the power provider (a government owned company) the government gave it 400 million so it could "afford' not to raise its prices so much. (the smelter had said the higher prices would mean 400 job losses in a high unemployment region so the government caved in). Chinese miners may have deals that have the same effect ie as the price rises it is deemed in the public interest if the state subsidies things so the actual effective price rise is nothing like double.