http://i.imgur.com/EJp8fmh.jpg  -  link to big chart.

Hello, Fractal Analysis using overlay of $32 and $1200 bubbles. Just idle musings, definitely don't trade solely on this analysis. Currently Scenario A is strongest due to lack of major 200EMA conflicts. Comparison A is zoomed in too much, chart is much more aesthetically convincing zoomed out a bit.  

Note the similarities in indicator fluctuations for the scen, especially major points around elliot waves 2, 4, A, B, C. Also indicators not shown here include StochRSI, EMA crossovers in 7/21 and 9/30, daily and weekly. These indicators support A the most, but B and C are also valid to slightly lesser extent.

Cumulative volume indicators, such as volume OBV, money flow and Accumulation/Distribution lines, are not reliable here - exchanges fluctuate in popularity.

ADX and such, are inconclusive thus far.

Crashes bouncing off near-exact 200EMA are very significant.

Fibonacci levels useless.

Bollinger Bands inconclusive because of how arbitrary the paramaters are and how sensitive the bands can be to parameters.

Parabolic SAR supports Scen A with varying paramaters - its mathematical basis is similar to that of 200EMA after all.


qualifications: I am math genius and successful trader thus far, %, $, and max-drawdown-proportion wise.

A implies 150 was the bottom, we are flat then slow up from here.
B implies 1 more drop, perhaps a double bottom. Bottom at $90.
C implies 2 more drops, one bottom near $90, another at $50. The $50 would be Extremely Significant. All the stars and planets align.

Vote which scen you foresee you bunch of homo sapiens
 

http://i.imgur.com/EJp8fmh.jpg