Post
Topic
Board Bitcoin Discussion
Re: Purchased a 10,000 BTC PUT option today, history has been made
by
Keyser Soze
on 06/05/2015, 21:18:08 UTC
Not sure who would take the risk of writing that many put contracts at what I would consider pretty close to ATM (huge counterparty risk here that it doesn't get honored). Having said that, those saying he needs luck need to realize BTC is still in a downtrend, evident by the resistance trendline on a log scale that has yet to be breached (easily drawn on a weekly chart on nearly all exchanges). Below $290-315 depending on exchange, the trend is your friend and it's down. It's reality until it isn't.

EDIT: Even black-scholes puts the option price at about $8.50 given current volatility (which happens to be on the lower end).
MP (owner of MPEX) has been involved in large options deals previously, some of which have been very profitable or costly. That said, there's no way I believe this deal was made without seeing the relevant logs and transaction id.