Ben,

all one needs to see the price of Bitcoin raise over $300 is any of the unforeseen events that have occurred over the past 5~ years that have caused the price to raise.

- Increased use.
- Buyers seeing an opportunity.
- Economies of nations crumbling, and the ensuing panic in its citizens to convert their currency from one in decline to one they see as more solid, or best allow them to retain control.

Granted, such drastic swings in the price of bitcoin wont be repeated as it has been tempered due to it's greater connection with fiat currencies through exchanges, bank-backed ventures, and greater acceptance by merchants. A swing of $100 is entirely possible though, especially in the face of unforeseen events.

Your confidence in Bitcoin remaining below $300 is based on your knowledge/experience of a system that is as relatively stable as it was when you made the original post. You can make likely predictions as to what will happen tomorrow, but even if you are 99% sure, you still can't be sure. One fly in the ointment is all it takes.