Not sure who would take the risk of writing that many put contracts at what I would consider pretty close to ATM (huge counterparty risk here that it doesn't get honored). Having said that, those saying he needs luck need to realize BTC is still in a downtrend, evident by the resistance trendline on a log scale that has yet to be breached (easily drawn on a weekly chart on nearly all exchanges). Below $290-315 depending on exchange, the trend is your friend and it's down. It's reality until it isn't.
EDIT: Even black-scholes puts the option price at about $8.50 given current volatility (which happens to be on the lower end).
Also I'm not really sure you can calculate it like that. Options aren't just based on current volatility. Instead you should look at the premium and see what is the implied volatility from that. You're trading volatility, future volatility.
The variables are all there to price a hypothetical contract value given there really is no secondary market.