Post
Topic
Board Bitcoin Discussion
Re: Purchased a 10,000 BTC PUT option today, history has been made
by
oblox
on 07/05/2015, 16:56:08 UTC
Not sure who would take the risk of writing that many put contracts at what I would consider pretty close to ATM (huge counterparty risk here that it doesn't get honored). Having said that, those saying he needs luck need to realize BTC is still in a downtrend, evident by the resistance trendline on a log scale that has yet to be breached (easily drawn on a weekly chart on nearly all exchanges). Below $290-315 depending on exchange, the trend is your friend and it's down. It's reality until it isn't.

EDIT: Even black-scholes puts the option price at about $8.50 given current volatility (which happens to be on the lower end).

Black scholes needs an annual implied volatility of 33% to valuate this put at $8.50. I highly doubt this is the case for btc options market.

I used the volatility index as a proxy: https://btcvol.info/

Granted, this is a rolling 30 day value so scale appropriately for annualized. I would say the implied vol is pretty accurate given historic swings even though we're at historically low levels of volatility.