Re whether or not the Palestinians want a peace deal:
In fact, ever since 2006, Hamas has clearly stated that the issue of recognizing Israel wasn't their responsibility, but rather, to be left up to popular vote - a vote which they would abide by, even if the results went against their beliefs.
I'd like a source for this as well. It would surprise me if Hamas said this, but you seem well-informed. In any case, I think if such a vote among Palestinians to explicitly recognize Israel were held, it would fail in a landslide. If the Palestinians surprised me, I think we'd quickly find out Hamas was lying.
I find it interesting that, at the same time you're admitting something would come as a surprise to you, you immediately move to try and frame it in a way that negates any possible value coming out of it.
I don't trust Hamas. Maybe we feel differently about that. Even so, the quote from the Hamas leader you included isn't particularly promising.
Riad Mustafa, in 2006: "I say unambiguously: Hamas does not and never will recognize Israel. Recognition is an act conferred by states, not movements or governments, and Palestine is not a state. Nevertheless, the government's program calls for the end of the occupation, not the destruction of Israel, and Hamas has proposed ending the occupation and a long-term truce (hudna) to bring peace to this region. That is Hamas' own position. The government has also recognized President Abbas' right to conduct political negotiations with Israel. If he were to produce a peace agreement, and if this agreement was endorsed by our national institutions and a popular referendum, then - even if it includes Palestinian recognition of Israel - we would of course accept their verdict. Because respecting the will of the people and their democratic choice is also one of our principles." The article goes on to say: "In March, Hamas released its official legislative program. The document clearly signaled that Hamas could refer the issue of recognizing Israel to a national referendum. Under the heading 'Recognition of Israel,' it stated simply (AFP, 3/11/06): 'The question of recognizing Israel is not the jurisdiction of one faction, nor the government, but a decision for the Palestinian people.'" And from the Aljazeera article: "Carter said his understandings with Hamas called for a referendum to be preceded by reconciliation between the group and Abbas's Fatah faction. In his news conference, Meshaal said Hamas would 'respect Palestinian national will, even if it was against our convictions'."
Hamas believes all the land is occupied. An "end of the occupation" for them implies the destruction of Israel. Any "truce" Hamas makes only until they are strong enough to fight for more land/dead Jews. I agree that in your quote above Mustafa of Hamas said in 2006, "calls for the end of the occupation, not the destruction of Israel." Hamas was lying in order to further their position. There's a long history of this in the Islamic religion, dating back to Muhammed.
Taqiyya.Here's a further quote from the Haaretz article you linked to:
The Hamas charter, drafted in 1988, regards all of the land of Palestine, including what is now Israel, as the heritage of Muslims. The idea of a referendum on a future peace accord with Israel was rejected by some Hamas leaders when it was proposed by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas several months ago.
If Palestinians voted in a referendum to accept a two-state solution, it's clear Hamas would not accept it. If they pretended to accept it, it would only be as a temporary measure to move to the next stage of the Jihad.
But, would the Palestinian people actually vote for the explicit recognition of Israel? Well, there are several polls on this and other issues, and at times they seem to present contradictory information, both on the Palestinian and Israeli intentions. Going by polls from the Policy and Survey Research (
http://www.pcpsr.org/en/node/596), on the one hand, they seem to show that, were such a vote to happen now, it would probably receive no more than 40% support.
40% sounds plausible. I'm skeptical of the other polls showing higher percentages for more specific questions you included, but maybe someday we'll find out.
The polls go on to show that Palestinians believe "The most serious problem confronting Palestinian society today is poverty and unemployment in the eyes of 28% while 26% of the public say that it is the continuation of occupation and settlement activities; 22% say it is the spread of corruption in some public institutions; and 19% believe it is the siege of the Gaza Strip and the closure of its crossings" - Israel, as the occupying power, plays a major role in most, if not all of these issues; so, addressing them would be an easy way to improve its support within the Palestinian population.
I reject the idea that Palestinians are playing a minor role in these issues. They are the ones choosing to place such a focus on hating Israel/Jews instead of being more productive.
As for the possibility of Hamas going back on their word, I see it as somewhat of a moot point, since they would quickly find themselves: (even more) isolated and marginalized; expelled from the unity government they're currently in; losing popular support and the relatively insecure grasp on power they have; probably taken over by a more popular faction; and/or, risking a civil war they would be unlikely to win.
I don't think it's a moot point. Whether or not Hamas would continue to hold power in the new government, Hamas would continue to attack Israel. Israel would respond. The world would rise up in anger against Israel attacking a "sovereign state of Palestine" as opposed to the current anger about Israel attacking "occupied territory." Basically Israel would have to give some things up and would get nothing in return. Not even good will from the world.