Some might think that price is gonna stay in a long period of consolidation/sideways like it happened in 2012, but the sudden drastic decrease in volume lately suggests that a big move is coming IMHO. It should be imminent. I'm gonna monitor the trend lines I posted a few days ago and I will long the breakout/short the breakdown.


Arguments for down: decreasing volume since january bottom (trend reversals should have increasing volume and enormous prolonged buying pressure), decreasing and low bid sum (especially considering daily inflation), overall bearish price structure since the $150 bottom, if this bear market behaves like the 2011 one the bubble should deflate almost completely to reach $60-$80 in a few months (which would be the same percentage of retracement of the $32 to 2$ bubble), long on bitfinex still atrociously high, the long term support trend lines are being already slowly tested and breached while the resistance ones are barely touched, EW theory counts (ask the EW guys, I do't know much about EW).

Arguments for up: Overall slight seller exhaustion lately, the drops don't have much follow through in this choppiness, signs of accumulation (although we might have already passed or be in distribution already), increased confidence because of good news (nasdaq experimenting with the blockchain and all that shit) lately.


I think the bearish arguments are stronger and technicals are more important than news, but wait for confirmation and a definitive break with volume in either direction.
If despite the decreased volume and signs of a big move coming we just stay sideways, that would be boring AF lol
In that case I'm gonna forget about BTC for a few months and get involved again only when another breakout/breakdown no brainer setup appears.



My 2 satoshis.