https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=104494.0Link to Garr's escrow page with previous contract. I will be accepting bets with odds of 2:7 or better at this time. As the date of termination draws closer I will have to revise down my estimation of the probability of a repayment and adjust odds accordingly (odds the day before termination day of repayment would be slim to none). I feel these odds are generous given how unlikely repayment is and that pirate debt is selling at less than 20% and usually much closer to 12%. I will commit $500 towards a 2:7 bet.