(1) Assuming Bitcoins are widely used by then, there will be lots of trades - and lots of transaction fees.
... or ...
(2) Assuming no one will use Bitcoins, there will be no transaction fees.
I'll bet on option 2
Since bitcoins are not backed by anything, they have value solely because they are useful for certain things. If nobody's using bitcoins, they'll be worthless anyway, regardless of how many are being created.... or ...
(2) Assuming no one will use Bitcoins, there will be no transaction fees.
I'll bet on option 2
Just because there are places where Bitcoins could be spent does not mean people do use them.
Right. People are paying over $10 for something that they're not actually planning on ever using. That makes perfect sense. 
The places you mentioned are more or less exotic (e.g. a book store for "Document preparing the common competition in french politics sciences" hrmmmm ...). Once I can bay a toaster on Amazon using Bitcoins I will be convinced. And happy 
You can buy an Amazon gift card with bitcoins. Are you happy now?