calculate how many coins you can mint its simple:
coin amount / 100 x 3 = yearly minting50000 FAIR can become 51500 after a year at 3%, on february 2 of 2016 minting reward half to 1,5%.
to calculate minting reward on age base:
yearly minting / 365 x age of transaction = age base minting
50000 FAIR can mint after 21 days 86 FAIR
Probability is related to many factors:
amount of coins, age of transaction and minting difficulty you can check here for difficulty
https://chain.fair-coin.org/rt/connected-nodes.htmlmany open wallets means more competition and higher difficulty, the more days pass higher is probability, until you reach the maximum weight after 90 days.