Great, then I suggest you take a look at my wager offer in which I am accepting Escrowed MtGox USD bets. I used Gar (Cognitive Operator) as my first escrow with PGP signed contract. Since you believe the odds are around 1% I would think you would be interested in making a wager with 7:2 odds. If not you are just blowing smoke
If I had money I could afford to lose, I'd definitely take your bet. I haven't looked at the terms of your bet or the trustworthiness of your agent, but if the terms are as you describe and the agent is trustworthy, I would advise people to take your bet. (After investigating the issued I described about Matthew's bet such as precisely what the conditions of the bet are.)