Although I'm also leaning towards this hypothesis, I don't know for sure that Matt is an insider - but if he is an insider, then I for one believe that he has good intentions with this bet. I simply don't think that pure insider trading represents the type of person that Matt is, and so I choose to trust him, as he has never given me a reason not to.
I was going to state that my sentiments are fairly much the same but I am just not certain at this point. I'll ask myself again in a month and let you know. =)