Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: The recurring trouble-cycle of bitcoins, and why I'm here.
by
runeks
on 02/09/2012, 21:02:51 UTC
In instances of high inflation, it is always when a central bank or banking system is in control of the issue of what is always the largest portion of any currency in existence - promises to pay it:  Debt.  Central banks allow for high inflation to benefit the banking system at the expense of savers.  Hyperinflation doesn't occur when the government must use the banks as a proxy for its promises, only when the government itself attempts to fund them and controls the entire mechanism for doing so.  We don't have to worry about Weimer here, because the banks are beholden to the fed and the fed to the banks, with the state as a third-party benefactor (having its bonds as underlying collateral for all other credit).  We just have to worry about 20-50% annual inflation for a few years, which is still gutwrenching for an economy and easily enough to destroy a generation's worth of productive advancement, if not more.
Interesting. I hadn't thought about that. Reading Wikipedia's account of hyperinflation in Weimar Germany, it sounds awfully similar to our situation today though:

Quote
[...] The Treaty of Versailles imposed a huge debt on Germany that could be paid only in gold or foreign currency. With its gold depleted, the German government attempted to buy foreign currency with German currency, but this caused the German Mark to fall rapidly in value, which greatly increased the number of Marks needed to buy more foreign currency. This caused German prices of goods to rise rapidly which increase the cost of operating the German government which could not be financed by raising taxes. The resulting budget deficit increased rapidly and was financed by the central bank creating more money. When the German people realized that their money was rapidly losing value, they tried to spend it quickly. This increase in monetary velocity caused still more rapid increase in prices which created a vicious cycle.[9] This placed the government and banks between two unacceptable alternatives: if they stopped the inflation this would cause immediate bankruptcies, unemployment, strikes, hunger, violence, collapse of civil order, insurrection, and revolution.[10] If they continued the inflation they would default on their foreign debt. The attempts to avoid both unemployment and insolvency ultimately failed when Germany had both.[11]

Also, it doesn't mention that the Reichsbank were controlled by the government. It seems like the German central bank acted just as our central banks do today: buying up government debt to keep the rates low.
In 1937 - when Hitler came to power - however, the central bank was put under direct control of the Nazi government.

It sounds like one of those things that are very hard to stop once they begin. I mean, central banks really don't have any room to raise interest rates to 15% like they did in the 80's. 15% interest on a $15 trillion debt just isn't an option.