5 yr after 1MB, the network is much bigger, stronger, and more resilient.
Is the capacity of the network to handle large blocks 8x bigger, or 20x bigger? Is there a high degree of confidence that it can handle 1000x bigger blocks in 15 years?
I suspect the answer is yes. Here's what it might look like graphically:
If anyone can see a mistake in the above chart, please let me know. I'd like to post it to r/bitcoin once I'm confident it's correct.
(Please ignore PM. For some reason right after I sent it your chart rendered correctly.)
The mistakes (at least questionable assumptions) I see:
1. There is nothing in the chart that relates the growth rate to any underlying technological limits at all. It is like a chart of global population extrapolating unlimited growth forward without any consideration of food supply, water, population density, etc.
2. Why would you increase the slope starting now? If anything one should be conservative about sustainable growth rates going forward relative to the past, in the absence of clear knowledge of what scaling bottlenecks might exist.