Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
shmadz
on 21/06/2015, 14:36:19 UTC
Well I invested 1500$ in Bitcoin since last March or so. Now i'm nearing 1000$. I've not made a penny.
I think i'm ready to quit trading. I'll never get that money back. I dunno how one could loose so much so fast, even if one is totally inexperienced, it seems one would make money at least 50% of the time. But i've made money something like 2% of the time. I just don't have the patience for this.


January was the time to buy, sorry you missed it. $1500 could have got you nearly ten bitcoin! Even in March you would have gotten 6 or 7...

 If you had "invested" and bought and held.at that time, you would still have those 6-7 bitcoins. If instead you've been gambling, and you now have only $1000 which can only buy 4 bitcoin today, well... take it as a lesson learned and try to make better decisions in the future.



Leave it to Captain Hindsight.

Hey now, cyclobro was the one looking back in hindsight, bemoaning his misfortune. I just clarified the mistake he made so that he could hopefully recognize and avoid making the same mistake in the future.

By the way, "captain hindsight" over here was giving the same advice back in January, if you recall...

... Today we are seeing an text-book bear flag (sym triangle with slowing volume) indicating  lower levels in an Wave 4 Elliot Cycle. Sure it could rebounce, but that chance would be 40/60, so my bets are on bear until I see a rounded bottom or similar reversal indication.



Based on your triangles closing, I would assume another day (or so) at current levels, followed by large dumps to 170$+ levels. Am I terribly wrong / bear-ish ?

What I see there, is that the volume increases as the price drops.

Could be an indication that a bottom is being discovered.

Also, volume dropping on price rise leads me to think that many are relatively happy with their current holdings and only looking to accumulate on the dips.

Until there is an influx of new participants that do not already have positions in this market, I do not think price will rise dramatically. If this influx of new blood does indeed happen, I would expect that the long term holders that have been suffering this market will not be willing to give up their coins cheaply.

Personally I think we could see sideways/downward movement for many months to come.

It would be the preferable situation for anyone looking to accumulate more coins.

"As low as possible for as long as possible"

Those who ignore the past are doomed to repeat it.