Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Analysis never ends
by
Tzupy
on 25/06/2015, 21:39:01 UTC
...
The move up from $152 is not impulsive, so it would not be agreed upon by ew'ers at all that the bottom is in. In fact, the only one that I know of who believes the bottom is in is that one guy who really doesn't know how to count (or pretends like he can't). I think his name is user1trillion or some shit
...

I'll try to explain why I find it not impulsive: the first pump of January to 315$ looked somewhat impulsive initially, but it didn't hold, it deflated very quickly.
In an incipient bull market, it should have lasted close to it's top for around 10 days. The second pump of March failed to reach higher levels and while it lasted
longer close to it's top, it deflated too deep to allow a third pump, that would break 315$ resistance and make a decent case for an incipient bull market.

If the fundamentals would change, some new demand for bitcoin would appear, then breaking 315$ would be possible, and after a correction, we would see a new ascending trend.
But recently the market failed to reach my target of ~270$ while being seriously overbought, so now I'm only expecting sideways (which may include a 15$ pump) then down a lot.
I am not sure how much the last capitulation will take, I hope not much longer than 6 months.