Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Two semi-random thoughts on the market and our predictions on it
by
oda.krell
on 29/06/2015, 08:58:44 UTC
Two thoughts recently formed in my mind, nothing very coherent yet perhaps, but thought I'd share it anyway, see what your responses are...

This cycle brings to mind the effect of cheaters in an established game-theoretic framework.

As example, in evolutionary game theory the mimic appears like the poisonous in order to reap the same benefits without bearing the cost of developing or cultivating a poison. This is frequency-dependent, and is limited by the number of cheaters. Once too many, the predators' odds of being poisoned by any one appearing insect begin to dwindle and the strategy loses effectiveness. This self-limiting feedback loop drives a sort of resonance in the numbers. Your intuition has grasped this same pattern, driven by the same mechanism, in the Bitcoin price.

Good point. I didn't really connect it to the EGT view, but it makes the most sense I suppose if one would want to make the above intuition slightly more formal.

Sorry to be so lazy (soooo long to type in "Google Scholar"), but anyone knows if there is an intersection between EGT and financial econometrics or economics? As in, are there any publications on actually testable market models based on EGT simulation aspects?