Matthew had already posted his payment address if he won the bet, and I'm sure many would have just paid what they owed to that address if pirate did start paying back - this right here makes Matthew the biggest piece of shit on the forums. No way in hell would I believe for a second that he would turn down 10,000BTC if he had won the bet.
His parsing of his own initial bet agreement to turn it into a 'joke' doesn't make any sense. It is perfectly clear that the '20BTC bet' was a reference to the bet format, not to the 'bet' as defined before the example. There is no reason to believe otherwise and no reading of it makes any other sense. If this were a legally binding document there's no way he'd get away with not paying as a plain reading of the agreement is very clear. This was a retroactive 'joke' for sure. He may have played it off as a 'joke' to some people beforehand to cover his bases.
I don't even have any investment in this bullshit as I didn't participate. I don't feel so bad for the people who lost money with pirate as the whole idea of his 'investment' was laughably unrealistic and obviously a scam from the beginning. But an established member posting a legit bet in the 'gambling' forum (not off-topic or other place, but a forum strictly for placing bets and gambling, which Matthew now claims was NOT the case from the beginning) and reneging on his part of the deal makes this one of the shittiest things to happen around these parts since this community started.