Post
Topic
Board Gambling
Re: I have a +EV method for a dice site,[CONFIRMED +EV is possible]
by
joter85
on 03/07/2015, 14:31:48 UTC
I have ran simulation for this cases, and don't see any issue with it.... Am I missing something....

The variance makes this very difficult to simulate (and likewise very difficult to abuse). Try simulate with 100M bets.


Or you know, just use fucking maths. Hint: It's two multiplications and one addition. Sum of the probabilities by its respective profit, which gives you the players EV. If it doesn't equal -0.01 you're got the wrong payouts.


Taking the most extremely wrong one:

0.02% chance of 6613x

That's a 0.0002 of a profit of 6612, and a (1-0.0002) of a profit of -1

Or:  0.0002 * 6612 + (1-0.002)*-1 = 0.3244

AKA a players advantage of 32.44%








You are wrong somewhere as I have entered exact parameters in simulator and result after 10 mil is 0 btc.