Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Bitcoin or gold?
by
deisik
on 03/07/2015, 15:23:59 UTC
1) This is the formula for my "downward volatility" , i dont know exactly the term for it, but if you calculate this, you will get that value, which will then show you the volatility of only the down movements, which should give you a risk understanding of bitcoin price crashes, because price increase doesnt matter, that is beneficial.

This is a formula for calculating standard deviation. But it makes no sense in the way you use it (that most likely explains the reason why you don't know a name for it), since when calculating an average for x, you use all values...

Your "only downward volatility" by implication includes "upward volatility" as well

No it doesnt. This is the formula which gives you the "relative downward volatility" to be more precise. Yes you need the upward values to calculate them mean, but that is neutral.

So you only look for the downward volatility, relative to the mean, that is a more precise definition.

It does make sense and it has pretty good statistical significance.

Could you please provide external references showing this notion usefulness (for anything)? I think you will have a hard time explaining why you use an average value to calculate what you call "downward volatility", since it will be meaningless (whether you like it or not) if the price moves all way up while you would still get some pretty high positive value for your "downward volatility" when it evidently should be equal to 0. I guess you should use the mean of all downward price movements to reach where you aim at. It seems more logical and viable in regards to your idea of "downward volatility"...

And I'm curious if you understand what "statistical significance" actually means