So many people seem absolutely convinced that MNW has gone over to the Dark Side. However, I saw his "facebook" youtube video, and it reinforces my conviction that he was just doing an epic prank for the betterment of the community. Even if he was being immature, reckless, thoughtless, or whatever, my gut tells me he's got a good soul - hence the net benefit that this debacle will result in. Besides, if you've got a community with a gambling addiction as bad as this one has, mere 'talking' won't help.
You have no idea how much I want to believe that, but I can't. All the evidence suggests that Matthew, at least initially, believed that there was a good chance that Pirate would pay up by acquiring his own debt at a discount or arranging partial settlements. And, unfortunately, I firmly believe that he fully intended to try to collect every penny had he won and aggressively pursue scammer tags for anyone who didn't pay up.I often criticize people for believing what they want to believe rather than what the evidence shows. Now I know why people want to do that.
We can't divine what Matt's true intentions originally were. Thankfully, we don't need need to.
It was sufficient to notice that he was making wagers involving (well, invoking since no escrow) amounts of bitcoin too large to be reasonably rectified with his public persona.
Everybody knows you can't cheat an honest man.
Or as The Streets put it, "You can't con an honest Jon."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bTB929OoqI4