I think that it is very likely that, sooner or later, the miners will use their power to force changes to the protocol.
Since we are predicting the future, I'm going to run with this...
...And some users won't agree with those changes. And those user will want to make transactions on the original Bitcoin block chain. And they will pay handsomely to do so. And some miners will want to earn those transaction fees so they will mine on the "old" chain. And we will have a fork. And we will have two functioning yet distinct block chains. And everyone who controlled private keys before the fork will have coins on both chains. And some exchanges will see an opportunity to gather fees on the exchange of fork coins and original bitcoins. And ultimately, the chains will survive depending on whether or not people value the properties of the protocols which produce those chains.
Personally, I can't want to see it all unfold, and I really, really want to trade some fork coins for original bitcoins.
Well, forking bitcoin would be a simple and natural solution to the scaling problem.
However, the changes that the cartel may want to make will be such that they increase their revenue, or bring some other benefit. In that case, the compensation that the orhodox users would be willing to pay may not be enough for the cartel to tolerate the old branch.
For example, suppose that the cartel wants to postpone the next halving for 2 years. They could let the old chain prosper, and put some of their miners to work on it. However, in my math, that would give them tens of millions of dollars less revenue that if they kill the old chain immediately at the fork, and put all miners to work on the new one.