Post
Topic
Board Scam Accusations
Re: DADICE : exposing investors to more risk than their kelly, misleading informatio
by
dadice
on 09/07/2015, 17:29:20 UTC
Isn't 10 kelly actually 10 times of your investment? how much did you invest? If you invest 5, you were contributing and risking 50 BTC to bankroll. am I wrong?

Yes, you're clearly wrong. How can you risk 50 BTC when you only deposit 5 BTC? That would leave you owing the site 45 BTC if you lost the amount you were risking.

Here's how it works:

The house edge is 1%, and so the Kelly criterion tells you that it is optimal to risk 1% of your bankroll per bet.

When you opt to risk 10 times the amount that the Kelly criterion tells you to risk you are risking 10% of your bankroll per bet.

That's all. It's really simple.

So if leen invested 5 BTC at 1x Kelly, the risk is 0.05 BTC per bet (1% of 5 BTC).
And investing 5 BTC at 10x Kelly would mean a risk of 0.5 BTC per bet (10% of 5 BTC).

There is no way to risk 29% of your bankroll per bet when the maximum multiplier on offer is 10x.

This is all pretty basic stuff.

Well, then read our manual, that was accepted by leen. I repeat it again:

Here is more information from our removed investors manual:

Kelly 1 is like a straight investment. Let us assume that there is no bankroll and you invest 10 btc. This will make your investment 100% of the bankroll, and you will get 100% of the house edge, in case the player loses. If a player wins, the amount they win will be deducted in full.

Kelly 0.5 halves your risk thus you invest 10btc but the total bankroll (if there are no other investors) is now only 5 BTC. Accordingly you profits and losses are less.

Kelly 2 you would invest 10 BTC. Thus you would create a bankroll of 20 btc in total, but since you have invested only 10 BTC, your risk level has since doubled, but then again so have your profits, if players are losing.

Therefor the higher the Kelly level is, the more risk you are taking.