I really don't think so. I see it from the perspective of the mining of coins which ultimately determines its value. It correlates with the difficulty level that it is at now. If you study the graphs it's concave, between end 2013-2014 that's where the spike happens (due to interests, development of better miners, etc) and now it's reached a plateau. That would be the real value of the btc, whether speculated or not, because that's what Bitcoin was created for: a currency that is based on maths, applied onto the real world, where most currencies are controlled by the government.
I'd imagine that the number people who threw money in during late 2013 who knew much or anything about mining verges on nil. An equally minuscule number cared about using it as a currency. They were after fat and seemingly never ending profits.
You have the right approach no doubt. That all flies straight out the window if the whiff of fast money enters plenty of nostrils. Greed outweighs everything else by a country mile.
Nothing changed in miningland between October and November 2013. I did notice a little price rise during that time.