Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Critical Levels - EW analysis
by
Tzupy
on 14/07/2015, 16:16:36 UTC
Do you still think we could reach above 400 on the 5th wave Chessnut?

The largest impulse I have described could reach 400 possibly on wave (5), but we are in 3 of that impulse now, give it a few days/weeks. I think more likely that we top in the upper 300s but not 400. I expect that retraces will be shallow from here on having had deep retraces all the way to this point.

There is a (long term) bearish scenario that would reach about 400$ in about a month, but until now I didn't take it seriously because it means the market is moving 4 times slower then in April - June 2014.
And it would mean the bear market to last past the block reward halving, which doesn't make sense. I post these comparison charts (6h in 2014, 24 h now) with a month of free space, let's see...


Can i ask why you expect suspect a bear to come out after?


With the latest uptrend (which I expect to continue a bit) a bullish scenario became possible, but is far from confirmed.
Right now my most probable scenario is that we are on the way to 4 of C, which should be close to 400$ (but don't take this as granted!).
By this count, 1 of C was 340$ in April 2014, 2 of C was 685$ in June 2014, and 3 of C was the 166$ bottom in January.