You are probably right, Rassah. In the back of my mind though this whole thing seems orchestrated. I'm not really familiar with this history like some of you are - has MNW been involved with any other BTC companies that have ripped off/ran away with btc?
Not to my knowledge. All his companies have either got off the ground (Bitcoin Magazine) or flopped around and went nowhere (the Ellet), but I don't recall him ever actually taking people's money and not delivering the product (there WERE delays though).
I mean seriously, it would have been real easy for pirate to contact MNW (young and easily manipulated) and offer him 1000 BTC for him to make an ass of himself and keep the charade going. MNW gains 1000 coins and loses his rep - he knows (or thinks) that this will never come back to haunt him because people already think he is an idiot.
Pirate, in the meantime, is able to liquidate his holdings and get out while MNW is trying to subdue the rest of the large redemption's. Like I said, I have no dog in this race, but if I did, I would definitely be checking out MNW just as much as Trendon.
*** this is all, IMO ***
I have nothing in this race, either (the 20BTC bet wasn't something I was planning on keeping). If this is something that Matt would consider doing, it would surprise me. Matt struck me as someone who wanted to become big in the Bitcoin community, and was focusing on growing some sort of a reputation around it, with all his attempts at and involvement in businesses (though it WAS a really weird reputation). I think he would have considered the gain of $10,000 to be WAY less than what he thought he could earn from all his other business involvements.
But then, Matt has surprised me already with this stunt...