Long-term:
Short at 1163, STOP 1345, Target 200-400Target 200-400
How so?

Too expensive, 
Holy cow , how in the hell do you come up with these target prices?!?!! out of your ... ? with china and india and America consuming & reserving gold more than ever, the price is only falling due to a stronger dollar and more positive returns from interest rates which gold is hedged against...
aditionally: I have realized in the sea and pool of the uneducated ... speculation from them are spawned from delusional analysis
agree with OP longterm (10 years+). still i can see a midterm rally during 2016/2017 (armstrong)
compared to bitcoin. gold is shit. shit still has some energy value. so has gold. if you think the market is going to value a thing forever as a SOV, because it has 5000 years+ "traditional value" - i think you are the delusional one. markets might change faster than you think. especially, if trust can not be restored as to be seen in fiat AND gold. everyone i talk about (not older than 40) would rather take bitcoin in his portfolio, than gold.
markets are about future expectations.