I am close to even for the two fifty th I rented during the the 2x satan block. I think I need two blocks in under 125 percent.
If you started any time during the last 167% of the 666.666% block, then you will be on target of 100% (or better the later you started) for 4 blocks already.
So yeah that just depends on the next block if you hit the 100% for 5 blocks and the expected average payout.
Also, the average fee was quite good on those 4 so the PPS on them (again if you started mining during the last 167% of the 666.666% block) should be ~99.95% after removing the pool fee.
I like your 5n system.
So I keep an eye at the pool and every once in a while do a nice rental. Must be the eighth on ninth time I have done it. Kind of fun.