I was just looking at the chart for historical halvings, and noticed that the last having literally happened right before our meteoric rise to $1100. That's when the block reward went from 50 to 25. Is that coincidental?
Well, if you consider a two month delay as "right before", I suppose the halving did occur "right before" the rise in February to $260.
Do you really think the effect of the halving will show itself 'exactly on' of 'right after' the reward halfing?
Of course the effect will be spread out to a period starting well before the halving itself end ending well after it.
Let's look at last time:
I say it was halving-induced. Price went from $5 to ~$125, a 25x increase. So I think my earlier estimation of a 10x increase is conservative under these assumptions.