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Well I saw most of 2014 as a consolidation phase as we recovered from the bullshit Gox and China pump in 2013. Meanwhile venture capital poured in to start to build things that people might actually use, and by late 2014 or early 2015 it seemed utility, potential, and the rate of building might be starting to converge with price. Since then things seem kind of stable. At a fundamental level I think the market is waiting for developments, like whether the technology holds up, scalability is feasible, regulation becomes suffocating, something better pushes it aside, a killer app appears, etc. I don't think what Gox did matters much right now, but I could be wrong.
Agreed. Imagine the counterfactual; ie, instead of MtGox, the early Bitcoin exchange was reasonably responsible, didn't lose a ton of money, and didn't manipulate the market. What would Bitcoin's price be today? My guess is that'd it'd be the same or higher than it is today. The 4yr price chart wouldn't have spikes to the same degree, nor such an ugly bear market, in my opinion. Bitcoin has evolved tremendously in the past few years, and without the Gox mess, I think we'd see a much smoother overall uptrend.
That said, I agree with you, Smooth, regarding people likely waiting for more resolution on: the blocksize debate, regulation, killer app emergence, various other uses, etc, etc.