Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation

Polo shows a volume of 1000+ btc on the day the 0.01 peak was hit. Mintpal data is unavailable but I bet that wasn't less than half the polo volume. So approx 1500btc worth of coins traded. Quite a lot actually

Not all those traded at 0.01, but close. Still, I'm surprised to learn it was that much. I never saw the 1000+ BTC volume numbers on Polo, I guess I just wasn't paying very close attention. Crazy times.

1011 BTC worth of XMR (118,071 XMR) was traded at the average price of 0.00856 BTC/XMR that day. If you fantasize about someone being able to buy low and sell at the peak, please use the average instead of the peak for sums that are <5% of the daily volume (ie max 6,000 XMR). If the sum is larger, you need to apply a discount to the daily average to get an actionable figure. It is hardly possible that a peak in price would have coincided to one player selling more than 10% of the volume anyway.

Thus a well-executed swing trade would have been possible to buy at about 0.00220 and sell 0.00856, for the amount of 6,000 XMR. This would have yielded BTC38, given perfect timing on both ends.

So your saying that nobody sold more than 6k at a price above 0.00856.

Dude, I have probably traded more XMR in Poloniex than you. I am saying that there are certain practical limits for entering/exiting a position and one is that if you don't normally have trading volume, and suddenly want to buy/sell a higher % of the daily volume than 5%, it affects the price. You can try it safely any time by deciding a 2-week period, and trying to buy/sell 70,000 XMR at a better price than the weighted average during the time.

You can't do it.

As for the rest of my post, I am trying to bring the voice of reason and introduce scenarios that have let's say at least a 50% chance of actually having happened last summer. The others can bring in the theoretical edge cases, if that's their speciality.