This can be a possible scenario, if the new exchange launches before 2016 with gemini adding more volume to the space.
But it takes more then just creating a exchange, there needs to be new source of volume of buyers outside from the existing ones. Unless they someone how bring a couple new whales take chances on their exchange.
Oh i guarantee you the gemini will bring alot of new guys into the game, i mean a regulated exchange is like honey to the wallstreet whales.
I think alot of whales will come, perhaps not all of them are buyers, maybe some market manipulation will happen too, but the bigger the volume, the more safe the currency becomes and then alteast merchants will be more willing to use it.
It all ties in, and the bitcoin economy will grow.