Got to correct you there cypher.

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This whole debate hinges on what is acceptable main-chain scaling. Core Dev (especially BS) are gloomy about Satoshi's original VISA-scale main-chain volume projections. To an extent they have a point because it is only subsequent dev work which has made Satoshi's original code 100x more robust and more efficient, and it would have failed under today's volumes without all that improvement.

So they are focussed on 2nd-level solutions, and maybe the chance for profit has shifted that focus too far. There is no good reason why main-chain scaling cannot keep up with improvements in technology, which is what Gavin has effectively put a ceiling on with BIP 101. I suspect that another BIP will get adopted by both Core and XT which is more like Jeff's BIP 100 and works within the constraint of BIP 101. Gavin has said that he likes the idea of a belt-and-braces block size limit, i.e. a high, but steadily increasing hard-limit, and a lower dynamic limit. That dynamic limit could reflect incentives to reduce UTXOs.

When Gavin raised BIP 101 he made the promise not to commit it to Core using his own access without consensus. IMHO this constitutes a pact. It means that Core cannot commit a different BIP (like Pieter's) which has minimal main-chain scaling i.e. just 1.17MB by Jan 1st 2018. So Core are duty bound to only commit a BIP that has Gavin's approval as well as Jeff's.

So, as Core's node count diminishes, and miners shift UP, I expect a sensible dynamic BIP proposal from Core which works within BIP 101 and both BIPs get committed to Core and XT. The risk for Core is that the longer they delay with a sensible BIP allowing main-chain scaling the more likely that BIP 101 will stand alone and that it will get 90+% of the ecosystem, nodes and miners.