You are basically ASSUMING that there will be a market for non-XT coins after the fork. You are assuming that there won't be an immediate Flash Crash of the losing chain.
I mean, in that scenario, you are simply gambling. Not a smart one either it seems, because if your Bitcoin is worth $200 prefork, and non-XT chain flash crashes to $10 - I hardly see the value in taking $200 Bitcoin, that will probably start soaring in the XT Chain once the drama is over, and trying to "Double" your Bitcoin by moving it to a Chain that has a $10 value - and you double it $10 x2 to $20. Now that is investment genius.
I also assume that there will be miners to confirm your transaction, and that you have a computer to send the coins, and that there will be no blackout in your house. From this point of view I do assume extra things.
Regarding "investment genious", read #5 once again, please.I am sorry - but now you are just throwing out irrational nonsense. And I am honestly not trying to be disrespectful. But it is becoming increasingly apparent how inexperienced some people are here in financial issues, and the way the system works. And I am NOT saying that the system is good, heck I personally think it is basically evil as anything in the history of mankind. And it is complicated too. Incredibly complicated, and even more so based on the introduction of technology, which changes the rules frequently - often unexpectedly. But some of the next phase of Bitcoin is going to be how it merges into "the system". Because it has to if it is going to grow and survive and thrive.
I'm just a middle aged pre-grey hair who likes to think he's one of the good guys. And I have some petty good experience and background, and I see some people getting hurt / wiped out here with some of the ideas / advice going around. I myself am very concerned with where things are going,and I think that how this core-XT fork turns out is the turning point that will decide many outcomes.
And I think XT will prevail, though I am not necessarily hoping for it in its current form. But when it comes to protecting and investing my Bitcoin - I a not going to bet against the Huge Powers and Greedy Old men of the world in this transition. I haven't by any means lost the idealism and dreams of my youth - but I'm not stupid either. Patience and Cunning are good qualities in times like these. And carefully weighing and sifting through the advice of all these forum boards filled with "experts of little experience".