If there is a fork, than XT has already won. NonXT is a joke. No mining pool in his right mind will use it. Mining pools want certainty not chaos.
The whole "but what if people throw a lot of money at them"-argument is silly. It's a last resort, when you lack any real arguments. Again, no investor with a lot of money wants chaos. Causing chaos is not an investment plan.
The scenario at http://qntra.net/2015/01/the-hard-fork-missile-crisis/ is also a joke. A coin generated in one blockchain, can not jump into the other blockchain, since it is just invalid. All your clients do mostly is validating transactions and they don't accept invalid transactions regardless how many you throw at them.