I mean, in that scenario, you are simply gambling. Not a smart one either it seems, because if your Bitcoin is worth $200 prefork, and non-XT chain flash crashes to $10 - I hardly see the value in taking $200 Bitcoin, that will probably start soaring in the XT Chain once the drama is over, and trying to "Double" your Bitcoin by moving it to a Chain that has a $10 value - and you double it $10 x2 to $20. Now that is investment genius.
OK - this actually made me think of something I haven't seen elsewhere.....
Let's assume the above scenario does occur - a fork where both chains survive. What happens to the "finite number" of Bitcoin. I mean, say you have 15 million Bitcoin at Zero Hour. Then say XT Fork wins, and the vast majority of Bitcoins choose that chain.
But say 1 Million of those Bitcoin Holders choose the Core Chain. Does that mean that the New Finite number of bitcoins that will ever exist on XT will now be 20 million?
NOTE: I also still can't understand what is going to drive people to stay on Core IF XT Chain wins and takes off. Because in that scenario there is almost a 100% chance that Bitcoin XT will start moving up in value, and Bitcoin-Core will start devaluing massively in the immediate aftermath. I just am trying to imagine sitting there looking at my wallet with a Bitcoin in it, and saying if I take the right hand path I get $200+ and if I go left I get $20 - and then deciding to do the STUPID thing. I mean - why wouldn't I just go to XT for a lot more value, then sell for dollars, then go back and buy TEN (10) Bitcoin-Core (now a minor fork altcoin). I mean - I am thinking that is the path people would take??? I would.
Well, this doesn't make sense to me in the way I think about things.
If HYPOTHETICALLY at "Zero Hour" the hardfork occurs, and XT wins, but I subsequently choose to run my 1 million Bitcoins onto the old Core Chain - and if everyone seems pretty clear that those Bitcoins can NEVER EVER EVER go back onto the XT Chain - then it seems to me that the XT Chain just lost 1 million bitcoins.
So is my understanding of this flawed? Or are you saying that my Core-Forked Bitcoin are still counted in the 21 Million XT Bitcoins - but just "lost".
Some of your comments lead me to believe that you don't really understand what the OP is talking about.
It's simple. If you have bitcoins now (pre-fork), and a fork occurs, and there is a market for XTcoins and bitcoins post-fork, you will have XTcoins AND traditional bitcoins equal to the amount of pre-fork coins you had.
Let's say you own 1 bitcoin now (pre-fork).
A fork occurs. There is demand for coins (and mining occurring) on both chains. So, we have two surviving block chains (for whatever period of time).
You will then have 1 XTcoin and 1 traditional bitcoin.
You can then
taint one of your coins with coins which only exist on one of the forks. Let's say you get a few satoshis from block reward which occurred in a XT 8mb block (thus is not valid and does not exist on the 1mb chain). You can combine those satoshis with your 1 XTcoin by sending them to a new address under your control. This means your XTcoins can be safely moved
separately from your traditional bitcoins.
If you don't taint your coins first, any transaction you make will be valid on both chains, so if you send your coins to an address which is not under your control, the holder of the private keys for that address will be able to get both your XTcoins and traditional bitcoins.
There is no risk for you, until you make the decision to taint your coins on one chain, and then exchange them for something of value. You will hold coins on BOTH chains until you take these actions. Even the tainting itself does not incur any risk for you. It simply allows you to craft transactions on each chain which is no longer valid on the other chain.
You can then decide to:
a. sell only your XTcoins
b. sell only your traditional bitcoins
c. sell both of them
d. sell none of them
Should there be demand for both kinds of coins (and it's looking like there will be), then the risk comes when you make the choice to economically back one side. You may sell all your XTcoins and traditional bitcoins become worth far more, or you may decide to sell all your traditional bitcoins and XTcoins become worth far more. Perhaps the community is divided enough that both chains will continue to exist far into the future and they will reach valuations based on the demand for either coin. No one knows.
If the fork occurs when there are 15 million coins, there will be 15 million XTcoins and 15 million traditional bitcoins.
In order for you to control both of your coins, you need to first be the sole controller of your private keys when the fork occurs.
I hope this clears things up for you.
Thank you!
The concept of tainting the XTcoins (and corecoins) is the key.
It transforms the bitcoins you have from dualcoins to an XTcoin and a corecoin, so there is some risk, but realistically both will trade at very close to the same value at the fork and diverging (noisily) from there
Now by splitting all your coins, you have to take some action, but this is a matter to just sell them for market price into something immune from the XT/core price. So let us assume an impossible, but simplified future price post-fork.
we will have winnercoin and losercoin, I have no idea which will be the XT vs core, lets avoid that debate and just call it winnercoin and losercoin. So we reach the block of the fork. Now all miners, exchanges, merchants, they are following this in realtime and immediately stop accepting/mining/using losercoin and at the next block the price/hashrate/usage for losercoin is $0/0/0. If you believe this, well, you are not familiar with the nature of markets.
What will happen instead is some sort of decay. From the split the losercoin will gradually fade away to some much smaller value, but probably always be worth more than $0 simply due to the latent value it has, ie ability for it to be used in transactions with people who dont know about all the tech details. this period of time will last for months and maybe even years.
However, what I predict is that the market battle between XT and core will not be any academic smooth curve sort of thing, but rather a chaotic high volume, high volatility price madness where one coin is worth more than the other, then less, then more. All during this time most businesses will probably be forced to accept both, which means they will be economically vested in both and if the miners can merge mine, without any real cost they can continue to mint both winnercoin and losercoin.
Now since this doubling is totally legit and enforced by both blockchains and people will do it, the value in them cannot disappear overnight. Otherwise the businesses that accepted losercoin will all go out of business and they dont like to do that. So we get vested interests in losercoin (or mass bankruptcies)
We might end up in a DOS vs Windows scenario. I think DOS lasted for quite some years before it finally died. OP has pointed out that this whole fork will make both winnercoin and losercoins into altcoins and there does not seem to be an alternative.
James
P.S. I am willing to pay a premium for some satoshis that can be used to taint my BTC.