That still doesn't show an economical incentive to stay on the weaker chain.
Maybe you could describe it further? (That is not a rhetorical question. I am really curious.)
The fork will happen if 75% of blocks are mined by miners who support it. This is a quite silly indicator because it's not the miners who decide what changes are good/bad.
NotBitcoinXT makes it worse, we can't trust even the number of blocks. What an average Joe will do? A
sane average Joe will try to sit on the both chairs until he clearly sees what happens. And the most rational behavior is to follow the guide to maximize profit (minimize loss).
I strongly disagree. No sane person will follow your guide, since it is just highly speculative.
And again, there is no economical incentive for merchants not to go to the stronger chain. They most likely will just follow the lead, long before the split happened. And as I also said before NotBitcoinXT is a bad joke, no serious business will use it.