Ninjastic
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Cconvert2G36
on 03/09/2015, 04:18:30 UTC
Quote from: brg444 on September 03, 2015, 04:10:54 AM
Quote from: Cconvert2G36 on September 03, 2015, 04:08:04 AM
Quote from: shmadz on September 03, 2015, 02:52:42 AM
Quote from: Cconvert2G36 on September 03, 2015, 02:24:27 AM


My personal impression is that hash rate is dictated by price and (more importantly?) technology, with rate reacting to price and not the inverse. The two big ramps were directly related to a paradigm shift in mining tech, CPU to GPU, and GPU to ASIC. With ASIC gear becoming increasingly efficient we will probably see a rise in hashrate even in the face of a flat or modestly declining price. The upcoming halving should be pretty interesting for those watching this relationship.  

Agreed. Hashrate should follow price, but it seems like during those two massive increases it was the price chasing the hashrate.... Huh Someone better suited to scientific analysis of data sets would do a better job of analyzing this relationship ( hint, hint, Professor Stolfi )  Wink

Anyways, I don't expect any further large expansions in mining technology or efficiency, certainly nothing on the scale of cpu>gpu>asic.  

Many people mocked me many pages ago for my concern that the block size could not simply scale exponentially for the next 20 years, but I still believe we are reaching the limits of physics and any further significant exponential type gains in computing power beyond asic will likely take us beyond the singularity. I just hope our new synthetic overlords accept bitcoin. (Ok, yes, I've been watching too much humans (tv show))



The big difference this time around... We have our own little OPEC (OCDM organization of chip designing miners), with apparently only bitmain selling next gen hardware to the small fish. Small fish are more likely to mine and hoard, using it almost as a form of indirect purchase. The current dynamic makes me think that as a percentage, more coins are being mined and sold than in days of yore. The days of mining at a loss with your gaming rig in 2012 are surely over.

Contrary to popular opinion I am confident that a considerable (it may be a majority) part of newly minted bitcoins are being held.



Meaning their profit margin may be > 50% of their revenue?  Grin