I have done my research, and conclusion is, it's gonna crash as soon as one of the Hoarders get's scared, and dumps his BitCoins on the exchange. I love the idea, but it reminds me to much of a time when many of my friends got into these "pyramid schemes" selling various crap. And let me just say, pyramid schemes work, when we all buy into them...
the question is, why would a hoarder get 'scared'? at this point the hoarders are mostly people who mined EARLY -- ie: their investment isn't substantial in most cases.
Why? Look, if you mined early, it may not be a substantial investment, but that has nothing to do with anything. Let's take an example, let's say I mined early and got an easy 10,000 BitCoins. When I mined it, it wasn't worth much, and cost me "nothing". So far so good. Today, however, those 10,000 BitCoins are worth say, in excess of 60,000$. That's 60,000$, out of "nothing", if you SELL, TODAY. So far so good, but have you ever played the stock market, or FX, or invested in commodities? Well, even these established markets peak and crash.
So how do you feel when there's a security flaw discovered, or everyone moves on to the next great thing, or demand just falls because you can only buy crap, or some kind of negative government interaction takes place and your BitCoins starts tanking in value. Are you okay with losing 60,000$, just because the money was "free".
It's like inheriting some penny stocks from you uncle, next thing you know they shoot up in value, not because of your brilliance as an investor obviously, but because of dumb luck, so you figure, well since they are going up, they must be going up some more, after all there are only so many of them, and everybody wants them because, well everybody else wants them.
You gotta get off the roller-coaster sooner or later, so when are you gonna get off. What's you number?