2020 is not that far it will stick to 500.
If it looks like sticking around that price level after several more years of development, two halvings and ever increasing awareness then I think the party will've moved elsewhere and you can lop a zero or two off that.
I normally agree with everything you said, gentlemand, and I agree with the reasoning in the post. What I am not sure of, is the timeline. Assuming bitcoin doesn't take off (price or in any other way), how long do you think bitcoin will last before the bigger players start to lose interest and bitcoin really starts to "die"?
Another year? 3 years? 5 years? 10 years? 20 years? I personally think it would be between 5-10 years, so that if nothing much happens, either really good or really bad, I think bitcoin may still be here in 2020, but probably not too long after that.