Ninjastic
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Board Gambling discussion
Re: Does martingale really works?
by
GannickusX
on 18/09/2015, 18:25:51 UTC
Quote from: leex1528 on September 18, 2015, 03:10:52 PM
Quote from: GannickusX on September 18, 2015, 11:16:52 AM
Quote from: adaseb on September 17, 2015, 10:33:06 PM
Quote from: actmyname on September 17, 2015, 09:30:24 PM
Quote from: leex1528 on September 17, 2015, 07:06:19 PM
Quote from: GannickusX on September 17, 2015, 07:16:07 AM

No, you are wrong, that is not the gamblers fallacy and you are wrong thinking martingale works at short term because it doesnt, the term does not matter, no strategy works at short, mid or long term.

No, that is Gamblers Fallacy....

DEFINITION of 'Gambler's Fallacy' When an individual erroneously believes that the onset of a certain random event is less likely to happen following an event or a series of events. This line of thinking is incorrect because past events do not change the probability that certain events will occur in the future.

So him saying if short term is good, or past events(martingale short term)  Past events do not change the probability of certain things happening in the future.


I am defining short term in this case as this:  say I have .01 coins.  I want to gain .00001 coins.  If I played martingale with a base bet of .000001.  I would need to win 10 times before losing 9 in a row.  Your odds are pretty damn great you are going to win 10 times before you lose 9 in a row. 

Nothing is guaranteed to work short-term, though. Every single time you bet you have a 50% chance to lose. You could lose everything or lose nothing.

With gambling and especially with online bitcoin dice, short term has greater odds than long term.

Generally with small house edges, gamblers lose money when they gamble long term.

No it doesnt have greater odds, if you play at 50% the odds will always be 50% no matter what, i dont really understand what are you trying to say

Yes, you are correct if you play at 50% you have a 50% chance of winning that roll no matter what.

What I am saying, if you want to want to win 10 hands of martingale, your odds will be greater than 50% if you have a large bankroll and are hoping for a small profit.  The problem is, the more and more you play(increase number of wins) the closer you get to the house edge, and eventually you are going to lose.

''closer and closer to the house edge'' You are always playing at the house edge, there is some technique to improve your odds so slightly but its so small it doesnt really make a difference, but your odds are not better, if you want to win only once, your odds are always 50% even if you have 100 bitcoins and you keep doubling your odds are still 50%